By Marc Zwelling
The idea that Canada is divided has gone viral.
In a 2019 Ipsos poll, 59% of Canadians agreed that "Canada is more divided than ever." In Alberta 79% agreed.
In a 2021 Maru Group survey following the 2021 federal election, 77% said Canada was more fractured than ever. Additionally, 52% believed the country's democratic system was broken and needed a major overhaul.
In a 2022 Nanos Research survey asking, "Is Canada on the right track or the wrong track for building a united country?" 50% said the wrong path.
A 2022 University of Saskatchewan national poll found that 75% believed Canadian society had become more polarized as the result of the Covid pandemic and the 2021 federal election.
In a June 2024 Ipsos poll 70% agreed "Canada is broken," the motto of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.
Then Americans elected Donald Trump. He revealed a lust to make Canada his 51st state and pledged to put new tariffs on Canadian goods shipped to the US. When the Liberal Party elected Mark Carney in March to replace Justin Trudeau, former prime minister Jean Chrétien declared that Trump had "united us as never before."
Recent polls show Canadians have no interest in being Americans.
A survey in January, conducted by the YouGov polling firm, found 70% "strongly" opposed to "Canada becoming a part of the United States" (another 7% were "somewhat" opposed).
In March, a Research Co. poll asked a cross-section of the public whether Canada should "seriously consider initiating a formal process for Canada to become an American state."
A poll conducted the same month by Léger Opinion for the Association for Canadian Studies asked, "Would you or would you not like Canada to become the 51st state of the United States?"
A poll in January by the Angus Reid Institute asked, "Suppose there was a referendum in Canada, and Canadians were to vote on whether this country should become part of the United States…."
Even when they're offered a financial incentive, Canadians reject statehood. In a January Ipsos poll, merely 30% would "vote for Canada to become part" of the US "if the United States offered all Canadians full US citizenship and a full conversion of the Canadian dollar and all personal financial assets into US dollars."
A search in the archives of public opinion proves Trump didn't ignite Canadian solidarity. He just revealed it.
In 2004, Léger asked, "Do you wish for Canada to become part of the United States?"
In August 2001, Léger asked Canadians if they supported "the idea of annexing Canada to the United States."
Even when Canadians were reminded of the terrorist attacks on the US. on September 11, 2001, they saw no need to huddle together with America. A month afterward the Vector Poll™ asked….
Thinking of the increasing trade between the United States and Canada and the September 11th terrorist attacks on the United States, which do you think would be better for Canada…To maintain Canada's independence from the United States or to be admitted to the United States as the 51st state and elect politicians in Washington?
- 85% said independence is better
- 10% picked the 51st state
There's actually nothing new here. For more than 80 years polls have confirmed Canadians have no appetite for statehood.
During the Second World War, in 1943, the Canadian Institute of Public Opinion asked its national sample, "Which of these things would you like to see Canada do after the war?"
- 52% said "continue as a member of the British Commonwealth, as at presen
- 26% said "leave the British Commonwealth and become a completely independent nation
- 22% said "leave the British Commonwealth and become part of the United States"
"Canadians believe they are more polarized than they really are," says Eric Merkley, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto. "Journalists should refrain from framing news stories in ways that give people a misleading impression of how divided we really are, as much as commercial incentives may drive them to do otherwise.
Marc Zwelling is the founder of the Vector Poll ™ and the Union Opinion Project. He is the author of Public Opinion and Polling For Dummies and Ideas and Innovation For Dummies.
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