News

Prime minister Stephen Harper denies that his chief of staff leaked a memo to stir up mischief in the contest for the Democratic Party presidential nomination south of the border.

America's ABC News named Harper aide Ian Brodie as the source of a leaked memo on the presidential hopeful Barack Obama's trade views. Obama said he would like to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement that ties Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.

The leaked memo from a Canadian diplomat in Chicago reported on a conversation the diplomat had with an Obama economic adviser. The memo said Obama's advisor told the Canadian official Obama's criticism of NAFTA wasn't Obama's real view. Harper apologized and told the House of Commons "this kind of leaking of information is completely unacceptable."

Whatever Obama really thinks, Canadians have come to a final judgment after living under NAFTA for 14 years.

Most Canadians feel America has been the biggest winner in NAFTA. But that doesn't mean they see no benefits for Canada. They would tweak it, not pull out of it.

In a March 4-6, 2008, poll conducted online by Angus Reid Strategies, 51% said the U.S. has benefited the most from the agreement while 22% said Mexico has benefited the most. Just 8% said Canada is the big winner (18% had no opinion). Opinion on NAFTA has been stable. In a 2001 Compas Inc. national survey, Canadians agreed by 53% to 25% that "Canada benefits economically from the North American Free Trade Agreement."

In the new Reid Strategies poll, 45% say "Canada should do whatever is necessary to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA" while 24% say "Canada should continue to be a member of NAFTA under the current terms."

Only 8 % say "Canada should do whatever is necessary to leave NAFTA" (22% had no opinion).

The new findings mirror a Vector Poll™ in early 2006. In that poll, only 13% said Canada should "pull out of NAFTA," 20% said "continue the NAFTA agreement," and 56% said Canada should continue NAFTA "with changes" (10% had no opinion.)

The bitter dispute between Canada and the U.S. over softwood lumber exports to America was a defining moment for NAFTA. In April, 2006, a World Trade Organization appeal body rejected Canada's request to overturn a U.S. International Trade Commission ruling that claimed the way Canada prices lumber amounts to a subsidy that lets Canadian companies sell timber at less than fair market value.

Later in 2006 the federal government signed a seven-year deal requiring the U.S. to return about 80% of the more than $5 billion in duties it had collected on Canadian lumber imports. It removed lumber tariffs but provided export taxes that kick in if the price of lumber drops. The federal government's website on the dispute says softwood lumber is "one of Canada's largest exports to the United States," worth $8.5 billion in 2005 and "an important element of the largest trading relationship in the world."

It adds…

"Canada's forestry sector employs approximately 280,000 Canadians, and roughly 300 communities are dependent upon the forestry sector. U.S. lumber producers cannot meet domestic demand for softwood lumber: consequently, Canada now supplies over a third of U.S. consumption."

Shortly after becoming federal Green Party leader in 2006, Elizabeth May said, "The softwood lumber decision for me is the death knell for NAFTA." But it's not for most Canadians, as the polls show.